When you're in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

That leaves just three more bowl spots among 12 other teams. It could mark the first time in several years bowls won’t need to elevate the 5-7 team with the best Academic Progress Rate (APR) to fill out the field. Unfortunately, that means multiple eligible teams could get left out of the postseason.